Tweeting the Future

Could you imagine the United States government having the ability to predict the start of an economic downturn well before the economy ever shows signs of peril? What about a company effectively forecasting the quarterly sales of a new product shortly after the launch date?

Social Media may be bringing us eerily close to predicting the future just by monitoring the constant chatter of the public. On Twitter, Facebook and other social mediums, people are engaged in a constant conversation about products, lifestyles, and all things deemed interesting and important to them. Social media provides a platform that people can use to sound their opinions. If it is possible to discern someone’s opinion of Facebook, then it may also be possible to determine how they will act in response to that opinion. For example, if someone is tweeting about how much they enjoyed presidential candidate #1’s speech, the assumption could be made that the tweeting individual will vote for candidate #1. This could mean that somewhere off in the not so distant future, entire election outcomes can be forecasted through social media.

British economist Noreena Hertz believes that analyzing chatter from Twitter and Facebook will become a dominant force in business forecasting. She has even carried out an experiment that proves the astonishing power of social media forecasting. Hertz’s work and research highlights the inadequacy of majority of the data used by governments and corporations to determine what people want. So she and a team of scientists, sociologists, and economists developed a method of research that enabled them to successfully predict the publicly chosen winner of the talent contest and television show “The X Factor”.  A sophisticated algorithm allowed the team to “listen” to hundreds of thousands of tweets at once and “deduced not just the number and subject of messages but also, for the first time, the sentiment.” This high tech social media measuring stick was actually able to determine the way people felt about a contestant!

I believe that this experiment proves that social media is a direct line to thoughts, ideas, and attitudes that can be quantified. And if any company or country, for that matter, takes its value for granted—they will definitely regret it. The heart beat of an economy, customers, and constituents are constantly being broadcasts to anyone willing to listen. And it is only a matter of time before more algorithms, sociologists, and computer scientists come together to create a technology that can predict the impending actions of a population.

"Post. Post. Post."

"What would I say if I was there right now? Pau get your a** on the block and don't move till you get it #realtalk"

"Matador defense on Parker. His penetration is hurting us"

-@kobebryant

What do all of these tweets have in common? They were all created by 15-time NBA All Star Kobe Bryant during game one of a playoff match up between his Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs. Those three comments alone garnered over 30,000 retweets and Kobe's in game twitter habits became more of a hot button topic than the entire playoff game itself. Basketball analyst and critics wondered if it was appropriate for Bryant to be splattering his in-game criticisms across a website, while fans enjoyed hearing what their beloved yet injured shooting guard had to say. This incident just further affirms that social media has changed EVERYTHING!

From the way we watch sports, discover breaking news, and keep in touch with one another; social media has has created a constant stream of contact and information that flows freely through corporations, organizations, and people from all walks of life. Which in turn makes it even easier for niche businesses to reach their end consumer. For Kobe the end consumer may be Lakers fans but for a small business like a cupcake shop the end consumer may just be a neighborhood.

Small business owners wanting to improve their marketing presence are confronted with time and budget constraints, content creation issues, and limited access to marketing analytics and interpretation tools. But with over 500 million people on twitter, 48 million on Pinterest, and1 billion on YouTube (and the list goes on and on)--there are plenty of opportunities for a small business CEO to grow their company.

I recently read an article on Mashable about a hair salon that decided social media would be a big part of its business model before even opening its doors. And just two years after opening 75% of their clients were sourced from Facebook, Twitter, and the company blog. In fact the owner even noted "it's rare for even a walk-in customer to come in and not have read our blog or seen our tweets."

Imagine that....choosing a hair salon based on the reviews and the number of 'likes' from total strangers. It is a business model that Emerson Salon has taken advantage of and a model that all companies should be looking to build.

Even though I would love to have more live game tweeting from Kobe during the playoffs...I don't know if social media is currently working in Bryant's favor. But it is definitely the best thing smoking for niche businesses looking to remain ubiquitous in an ever-changing environment.